I wrote an article a short while ago about whether or not it was a good time to buy a home. In that article I concluded that anytime is a good time to buy as long as you plan to hold the property for at least ten years.  My rationale in a nutshell is that over a ten year period you will have periods of strong gain and periods of correction but overall, at least here in California, it is hard to find a ten year span where properties are not worth more at the end of the span than at the beginning.  If you are going to experience up times and down times it does not matter so much when those times occur during your ten year span as long as you are up in the end.

I recognize that in spite of my words many will wait and try to time the market to get in at the very bottom. For those folks, I am posting this follow up to say that it appears here  in south Orange County, it may be time to make your move.   It is still a little early to pronounce the correction over but we are definitely seeing signs of support particularly for the entry level condo market.  A recent search of the entry level condo inventory has pointed out a few things of note.

The first thing we noticed is the vast majority of the entry level condos currently listed in this area are bank owned.  Many folks have reasoned that the market will continue to drop as banks foreclose on all the sub-prime loans that we hear about and  list these foreclosures at drastic price reductions.  The list prices while lower, are not the “pennies on the dollar” opportunities that some expected.

The second fact to emerge is that the properties are moving.  A recent tally of “sold” properties within our search criteria indicated a market time averaging in the neighborhood of 60 days.  While this is certainly not the frenzied pace of a few years ago, it is an indication of a much more sound market than we have seen over the last 24 months.

Last but not least, many “available” properties that are not yet in escrow are actually drawing mutliple offers that is some cases exceed the list price.  In the last few months we have seen the actual sale price of sold properties move from about 90% of list price to as much as 104% of list price.  That is correct, properties within our particular search criteria are once again selling for more than the list price.

Please consider that these data points all reflect a particular search for a particular property to match a specific set of parameters.  Different segments of the market and different geographic areas may behave differently so check with a local Realtor that you trust regarding your specific market conditions.  If you are on hold waiting for the market to hit bottom, I believe these indications prove that at the very least, it is time to re-explore your options.

News media tend to rely on sources of information that seem to lag the market by about 90 days so I expect we will start hear the good news through the normal channels in about 60 days.  At that point I will expect to see a pretty convincing movement by those who are trying to time the market.   Since you heard it hear first, you may be able to beat the rush.  And don’t forget to buy stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  they need your support to ensure there is financing available for you when you are ready to make your move.